Hello, A yearly allocation for the LCRC cluster has been requested with the following updated information: Submitter/PI: Emil M Constantinescu Project Name: uncertainty-climate Division: MCS Project title: Uncertainty in weather forecasting for energy systems Associated funding: Other Systems: NFS @ MCS Science: The theoretical part of the project consists in developing uncertainty models for numerical weather and climate prediction systems for use in the operation and planning of energy systems. Fusion is used to run several scenarios and obtain forecasts and ensemble-based uncertainty information about ambient variables by running weather/climate simulation codes. We also perform adjoint sensitivity analyses that indicate suitable locations for meteorological sensor siting. This information is used in energy management applications such as stochastic optimization control loops that provides optimal operational point for energy systems. A secondary objective is to develop robust data assimilation methods (i.e., correct model predictions with observations) in order to calibrate weather and climate forecasts for effective operation and planning of energy systems. Project description: Due to increasingly strong economic and environmental pressures, the operation of next-generation industrial energy and power systems will require the use of sophisticated optimization models able to accommodate forecasts and uncertainty information of highly dynamic trends of demands, weather, and prices in order to improve efficiency, and minimize costs and emissions. Wind and solar power are becoming worldwide a significant component of the power generation portfolio. In the U.S. an adoption level of 20% wind power is expected by the year 2030. Such a large-scale adoption casts many challenges to the operation of the electrical power grid because wind power is highly intermittent and difficult to predict. In particular, unit commitment (UC) and energy dispatch (ED) operations are of great importance because of their strong economic impact.

From an operational point of view, we ask how suitable are the forecast capabilities of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for the management of energy systems and power grids? This is an important question because NWP models are expected to be used to make real-time operational decisions with important economic implications. To this end, we analyze and develop simulation codes that form the dynamical core of NWP models at the interaction with wind turbines. Project URL: http://www.mcs.anl.gov/~emconsta/Projects_ScalableIMEX.php Current FY Hours Used: undetermined amount

New FY Requested allocation: 499999 Q1: 100000 Q2: 125000 Q3: 150000 Q4: 124999 Justification: Thank You, The LCRC Accounts System